Our betting expert Jones Knows makes his Premier League predictions; Watch Liverpool vs West Ham, Newcastle vs Everton, Manchester United vs Arsenal and Leeds vs Leicester all live on Sky Sports; Play Super 6 Extra to win £5,000!

Lewis Jones

Premier League predictions: Burnley to stun Chelsea, Sheffield United to hold Man City

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Premier League predictions: Get set for Gameweek 7

Our betting expert Jones Knows makes his Premier League predictions for the weekend with Burnley fancied to upset the odds at home to Chelsea.

Wolves vs Crystal Palace, Friday – 8.00pm

You know that fiddly 45-minute job you’ve got to do but have been putting it off? Do it in the first half of this one.

Here, we have two managers that actively play for a clean sheet at the break then try and push on as the game develops in the second period.

Since the start of last season, Wolves have scored just eight goals in the first half of their 21 home matches, while Palace have also managed exactly eight in their 21 away games. In that period, when analysing the ever-present teams in the Premier League, only Burnley have scored fewer first-half goals. It is a shame that Sky Bet are only offering 13/8 on a 0-0 correct score at the break as that looks a bet to follow, but the price is tight enough.

    Nuno worried about Wolves’ first-half blanksWolves vs Crystal Palace preview

So, I am assessing this as a second-half game. Palace have quietly gone about their business this season. Believe it or not, win on Friday and it will be their best-ever start to a Premier League season.

However, Wolves are usually pretty reliable at beating mid-to-low ranked rivals at home: Palace, Norwich, Everton, West Ham, Bournemouth and Watford all were dispatched by Nuno’s side last season without conceding. And Newcastle were lucky not to be added to that list last weekend, nicking a 1-1 draw despite registering an xG of just 0.27.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-0 (9/2 with Sky Bet)

Sheffield United vs Manchester City, Saturday – 12.30pm

Opposing Manchester City has proven a controversial opinion it seems. Plenty of flak was thrown my way across social media for tipping up West Ham win last weekend. And, although I couldn’t quite cup my ear in celebration at the 1-1 draw, my assessment of City remains unchanged. Pep Guardiola’s side are underperforming compared to their usual high standards.

This is explained beautifully by their overall negative xG figures this season (6.26 for, 7.02 against) – that is a mid-table return. It is a world away from their +1.57 per game xG figure calculated when winning the league two seasons ago.

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The return of the world’s best midfielder in Kevin De Bruyne could spark them back into life but with my betting analyst head fully engaged, there is no way I can advocate an away win at 2/7 odds.

I am happy to put my faith in Chris Wilder’s boys to get something. Yes, just one point after six games looks horrendous on paper but the performance data tells me they have deserved more in that period with some key, match-defining decisions, going against them and big chances being squandered.

They remain a devilishly tough team to break down – something that Guardiola found out first hand last season with both games ending in narrow City wins with goals coming in the second half. A low-scoring draw looks the play.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1 (9/1 with Sky Bet)

Burnley vs Chelsea, Saturday – 3pm (Play Super 6 to win £250,000)

The temptation of getting 11/2 with Sky Bet about Burnley is just too juicy to ignore.

You see that Chelsea bandwagon over there? I am not on it.

Frank Lampard is one talented human being, no question, and he may have convinced the betting markets regarding Chelsea’s current form but he has not tricked me.

I am yet to believe his Chelsea team have a thirst for defending on the road or have even found the right balance between attack and defence to the extent that they can be relied upon to win at 1/2 with Sky Bet away from home.

Remember, this is a team that have won just three of their last 12 away Premier League games and have kept just two clean sheets in 22 league games on the road under Lampard. Big swerve.

I was on minute-by-minute blogging duty for their 4-0 win over Krasnodar in midweek – a fantastic result, sure, but a scoreline that absolutely flattered them with two late goals against the deflated hosts putting unheralded gloss on the scoreboard. At 1-0 down, Krasnodar struck the bar and were the better team when Timo Werner fired home a very fortunate penalty award.

The hefty 2,000-mile journey back from Russia also is a huge negative for Chelsea to deal with, such mammoth trips have caught fellow ‘top teams’ out in their next fixture. The record of Premier League teams in their next game having played a midweek game in Russia since 2013 reads: P13 W2 D2 L9. That is a staggering statistic when you factor in most of those teams will have gone off heavy favourites for the match in question.

Surprise results after Russian away day

    2018: Arsenal lose 2-1 to Newcastle after drawing 2-2 with CSKA
    2015: Liverpool lose 2-1 at home to Palace after winning at Rubin Kazan
    2014: Man City lose 2-1 to West Ham after drawing in Moscow – that was the only game they lost in 18 PL matches
    2013: Tottenham lose 3-0 at home to West Ham after beating FC Anji

I can trust Burnley to take advantage. Do not be fooled by their winless start. Sean Dyche’s men are as rugged and defensively solid as last season – as shown by their expected goals against figure of 1.03 per game which ranks among the best defences in the league. Spurs, arguably the hottest attack in the league on form, found it very tough to find a way through on Monday with Burnley restricting them to a 0.68 xG figure in the 1-0 defeat.

With their threat at set-pieces, Burnley are no 11/2 shots to take maximum points off Chelsea that’s for sure.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1 (16/1 with Sky Bet)

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Liverpool vs West Ham, Saturday – 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports

Liverpool’s ‘injury crisis’ could lead a few predictor folk to put their faith in West Ham this Saturday evening. Do not go there.

Virgil van Dijk’s long-term injury has given Jurgen Klopp plenty to ponder in terms of his selections at centre-back. He may have to turn to youth as it is unclear whether Joel Matip will have recovered from a muscle injury to play at Anfield.

However, with Alisson back in goal, Liverpool surely will be sturdy enough to keep it tight enough at the back, especially with their front three looking red hot up the other end. The drop off from Alisson to Adrian is far greater than Van Dijk to Matip, according to my eye.

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It would not surprise me to see a Liverpool winning run take shape between now and Christmas.

Liverpool’s potentially makeshift defence will be in for an easier night than if Michail Antonio was fit. His injury is a big blow for David Moyes, who has intelligently made the skillset of Antonio a key part of the way West Ham counter. Without him, West Ham will lose their out ball, especially away from home – he was the catalyst for their impressive win at Leicester. In two games where Antonio has been missing on the road under Moyes, West Ham lost both matches to an aggregate score of 5-1.

Premier League predictions: Burnley to stun Chelsea, Sheffield United to hold Man City

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Big miss: West Ham forward Michail Antonio is out with injury

If Liverpool score early, then the floodgates may open here.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 3-0 (9/1 with Sky Bet)

Premier League predictions: Burnley to stun Chelsea, Sheffield United to hold Man City

Premier League predictions: Burnley to stun Chelsea, Sheffield United to hold Man City

Liverpool
West Ham United

Saturday 31st October 5:00pm

Kick off 5:30pm

Premier League predictions: Burnley to stun Chelsea, Sheffield United to hold Man City

Aston Villa vs Southampton, Sunday – 12.00pm, live on Sky Sports Box Office

One manager that does prick my ears is the enlightening Ralph Hasenhuttl, who will manage a top-four club within the next few years.

He makes players better and plays aggressive football, it is the perfect combo. That stepping stone to the top may happen at the end of this season if Southampton maintain the performance levels seen since December. A top-six finish is within their compass.

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No team has won more away from home since December 19 than the energetic and tactically shrewd Saints (8) and I am surprised to see them available at 7/4 for the away win.

Hasenhuttl’s side dominated Villa in both fixtures last season, winning 3-1 at Villa Park and 2-0 at St Mary’s. Dean Smith’s side like to play on the front foot, like Saints, but do not possess the same levels of intensity without the ball.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-3 (18/1 with Sky Bet)

Newcastle vs Everton, Sunday – 2.00pm, live on Sky Sports

This is a fixture where my value-seeking tendencies in assessing the betting market heavily influence my decision on the outcome. Do I think Everton are the more likely winners of this one? Yes, just about. But at odds-on, it is not a price I want to get involved in, especially with Seamus Coleman, Lucas Digne and Richarlison all ruled out – the service from wide areas into the deadly Dominic Calvert-Lewin will be lacking.

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Digne is an underrated part of Everton’s attacking make-up; he has grabbed the most assists (13), created the most chances (154) and delivered the most crosses (344) for Everton since he joined the club.

Premier League predictions: Burnley to stun Chelsea, Sheffield United to hold Man City

Premier League predictions: Burnley to stun Chelsea, Sheffield United to hold Man City

Newcastle United
Everton

Sunday 1st November 1:00pm

Kick off 2:00pm

Premier League predictions: Burnley to stun Chelsea, Sheffield United to hold Man City

I am tentative about completely trusting the Toon though, despite 11/4 for a home win looking very fair. Steve Bruce’s men have faced the most shots (102) and shots on target (41) than any team in the Premier League. Fence job for me.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1 (6/1 with Sky Bet)

Manchester United vs Arsenal, Sunday – 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6 Extra!

My gut is telling me to trust Manchester United here. It is chipping away at me with the fact I backed United to win the Premier League at 25/1 when they were in rampaging form last season and to keep the faith. The signs are positive in that regard; against PSG and RB Leipzig, they looked an elite team again.

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Premier League predictions: Burnley to stun Chelsea, Sheffield United to hold Man City

But my gut has held me back before. My head puts forward the case that United do come a cropper against well-organised defences and Mikel Arteta has proven to be a master at upsetting the flow of the big boys since taking the job. Wins over Liverpool, Manchester City, United and Chelsea prove that. I am torn. And in times of confusion, the draw makes most appeal.

    146 live PL games + EFL for just £18 p/m | All Sky Sports’ offers for the new seasonLive on Sky Sports | 146 Premier League games to be shown live on Sky Sports

The match odds have not tempted me to part with any of my cash but I will certainly be backing Bukayo Saka to score first at a very exciting 18/1 with Sky Bet.

Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang takes up a fair chunk of this market but his numbers have taken a big nosedive since signing his bumper new contract, has he lost his edge?

Premier League predictions: Burnley to stun Chelsea, Sheffield United to hold Man City

Saka’s position in a counter-attacking role down the left is a tricky one for opposition players to track with the youngster very clever with his movement into the box. Since Aubameyang signed his deal, Saka is averaging the most shots per game than any Arsenal player (2.72) and did find the net against Sheffield United.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1 (6/1 with Sky Bet)

ALSO LOOK OUT FOR: Bukayo Saka to score first (18/1 with Sky Bet)

Tottenham vs Brighton, Sunday – 7.15pm, live on Sky Sports Box Office

I am happy to row against the tide here. Brighton possess the style of football to trouble Tottenham.

But, as with most Brighton performances, it is whether their domination of the ball can equate to big chances being created and taken.

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Eric Dier and Toby Alderweireld do not like getting pulled out of their comfort zone by zippy attackers and you can certainly expose the Spurs full-backs, who look vulnerable to pace in behind and in one-on-one situations. Spurs may have won this corresponding fixture 2-1 last season but were thumped 3-0 at The Amex and an overall look at the xG numbers from both encounters shows Brighton coming out clearly on top 3.4 vs 1.2.

I am happy to keep Graham Potter’s team onside in this one.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-2 (12/1 with Sky Bet)

Fulham vs West Brom, Monday – 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports Box Office

As a famous predictor of this parish once said: this is a big football match.

If you were trying to construct a final Premier League table then these two would fill the bottom two places for the majority. I would tend to agree with that but it is far too early to be writing both of them off just yet – there have been signs of life in forward areas for both.

Fulham have utilised the market well in terms of improving their attacking prowess – since Deadline Day, Fulham’s xG return of 2.56 is the sixth best in the Premier League. However, no player has missed more big chances – defined by Opta – as Aleksandar Mitrovic (3) in that period. His sloppiness in front of goal is holding Fulham back. Keep feeding him though, and he will score eventually.

Premier League predictions: Burnley to stun Chelsea, Sheffield United to hold Man City

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Aleksandar Mitrovic reacts after missing a penalty for Fulham vs Sheffield United

Meanwhile, West Brom also looked a creative force in the final half hour at Brighton when removing Jake Livermore from the equation, deservedly pulling level. I do hope Slaven Bilic starts this game with the team that finished at Brighton. We could be in for a cracker if so as both defences cannot be trusted.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-2 (12/1 with Sky Bet)

Leeds vs Leicester, Monday – 8.00pm, live on Sky Sports

One thing we learnt from the Thursday round of midweek Europa League fixtures is that Leicester City are taking their venture into Europe very seriously. Youri Tielemans, James Maddison and Jamie Vardy all started as they came away from Athens with maximum points. A great result, certainly, but such an arduous trip is not exactly ideal preparation for a trip to Leeds, whose intense style is a demanding experience for the opposition.

Premier League predictions: Burnley to stun Chelsea, Sheffield United to hold Man City

Premier League predictions: Burnley to stun Chelsea, Sheffield United to hold Man City

Leeds United
Leicester City

Monday 2nd November 7:00pm

Kick off 8:00pm

Premier League predictions: Burnley to stun Chelsea, Sheffield United to hold Man City

Leeds top the Premier League for average distance covered this season with 114km per game – some 10km more than the likes of Fulham or Wolves. Any heavy legs in the Leicester camp will be found out at Elland Road.

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Brendan Rodgers will have a plan to stop them, probably in the same defensive shape that saw them rip through Manchester City. However, Marcelo Bielsa, whose powers have turned Patrick Bamford into Dennis Bergkamp, is taken to keep Leeds rolling at their relentless level for a few weeks more yet.

JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-1 (8/1 with Sky Bet)

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